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Is solar worth it in Victoria? Payback for 2026–27

Typical 6.6 kW system · Melbourne (STC Zone 4)

5.7 years payback on a $6,500 post-STC quote

Annual benefit ≈ $898 ($860 bill savings + $38 exports) · 10-year position ≈ $3,879.

Every assumption below is a dataset value — change any of them in the calculator.

Solar payback calculator

VIC

6.6 kW is the most common residential size.

Pre-set: Deregulated — no government minimum since 1 July 2025.

5.7 years estimated payback
Annual generation (3.25 kWh/kW/day, STC Zone 4)
7,829 kWh
Bill savings (self-consumed at 27.5c/kWh)
$860/yr
Export earnings (0.8c/kWh feed-in)
$38/yr
Total annual benefit
$898/yr
Net cost (after rebate)
$5,100
10-year position
$3,879

Your quote already includes ≈$1,556 of STC discount (39 STCs at $39.9 each) — it is not subtracted again.

Assumptions: CER-derived generation factor, VIC reference usage rate (ESC Victorian Default Offer 2026–27), STC spot $39.9 as at 10 July 2026, deeming to the 2030 scheme end. Panel degradation, tariff changes and finance costs excluded. How these numbers are built →

VIC payback against the other states

  • Victoria has the slowest payback of the 8 states on these defaults, 5.7 years, against 3.5 years in the Northern Territory.
  • Using 60% of the output at home, the same system pays back in 3.9 years, compared with 5.7 years at 40% and 10.6 years at 20%.
  • Exports earn $38 a year here, 4.2% of the benefit; the power you don't buy is worth 23 times as much.

The assumptions, sourced

Default assumptions for the VIC payback figure
InputValueSource
Daily generation per kW3.25 kWhCER zone rating, derived (Zone 4)
Usage tariff offset27.5c/kWhESC Victorian Default Offer 2026–27 (Jemena)
Feed-in tariff0.8c/kWhRetailer survey median, 17 October 2026
Self-consumption40%Editable assumption (typical daytime-home share)
STC value$1,55639 STCs × $40 spot (10 July 2026)
Price basispost-STCAU quotes include the STC discount — not subtracted again
State rebate$1,400Solar Victoria PV rebate (income-tested — toggle off if ineligible)

How the numbers are built

Generation = kW × the CER-derived daily factor × 365. The share you use directly offsets power at your usage rate; the rest exports at the feed-in rate. Net cost is your quote minus any upfront state rebate — and minus the STC value only if your quote was genuinely pre-STC, which Australian quotes almost never are. Payback = net cost ÷ annual benefit. Full formulas on the methodology page.

Frequently asked questions

How many years to pay back solar in VIC?
About 5.7 years for a typical 6.6 kW system quoted at $6,500 (a post-STC price), self-consuming 40% — an annual benefit of ≈$898. Your roof, usage pattern and quote move it; change every input in the calculator above.
How is the STC rebate worked out?
kW × zone rating (1.185 in Melbourne, Zone 4) × deeming years (5 for a 2026 install), rounded down, × the certificate price ($40). For this system that's 39 STCs ≈ $1,556 — already inside a normal Australian quote, which is why the calculator doesn't subtract it again by default. Full detail: VIC solar rebates.
Does the feed-in tariff still make solar worth it?
The FiT is no longer the engine — at 0.8c/kWh, exports earn ≈$38/yr here versus ≈$860/yr from self-consumption at 27.5c/kWh. Payback now lives on the power you don't buy, not the power you sell. See VIC FiT rates.
Is a battery worth adding?
A battery converts low-value exports into high-value self-consumption, and the federal Cheaper Home Batteries Program discounts a VPP-capable battery via STCs (roughly a third off). It lengthens the combined payback versus panels alone in most homes, but the gap has narrowed — the case is strongest where the FiT is lowest. Scheme detail: VIC rebates.

Related

Sources — figures current as at 17 July 2026.

Panel degradation, tariff escalation, financing costs and export limits are excluded — the estimate is conservative on generation (CER-deemed factor) and neutral on prices. Not solar-purchase advice.